Japan's very survival is at stake
However, if the Senkaku Islands fall into Chinese hands, it would pose a major threat to both Japan and Taiwan. China would swiftly begin to militarize the Senkaku Islands, as it has done in the South China Sea. It will then take a more hardline stance towards Japan, showing a readiness to blockade the sea lanes at any time while increasing its capability to attack Taiwan.
How will Biden's America react? In the worst-case scenario, the US, which never wants to fight China, may negotiate conditions with China such as 'no obstruction of sea lanes' and retreat to the second or third island chain. This would mean the end of US global hegemony. Japan will be desperate to retain US military bases in the country, while China will order its pro-China Japanese politicians to pressure for the dissolution of the Japan-US Security Treaty.
The US, meanwhile, is expected to encourage Japan to either arm itself with nuclear weapons or jointly possess US nuclear weapons (nuclear sharing), and to downgrade its own military commitments while encouraging Japan to defend itself. When this happens, either Japan will finally decide to get its stomach up in gear and fight a community-of-fate defense war with Taiwan, or it will suffer a military invasion from China while delaying its decision and suffer the same fate as Ukraine.
Japan must defend itself without relying on anyone else. Ukraine is showing us the consequences of a country that fails to show this determination and leaves its own security to foreign countries. Japan's very survival is at stake.
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